The fallacies of heuristics and other mindsets
I recently attended a lunchtime presentation on behavioral finance, and yes whilst the sashimi was deliciously fresh, the ideas were even more appetizing. The session ran through a number of common investor mindsets, such as the recency effect, confirmation bias and disposition effect (I'll go through them briefly later), but the one that struck me the most was heuristics, or simply put "mental shortcuts". To illustrate, in the room below there are two red lines, which one is longer? If you answered the one on top, unfortunately you're wrong, they are actually both the same length! Congrats to the smart cookies out there who got it right. Heuristics are all about making quick assumptions or judgments, based on our historical experiences. In some instances they are essential, i.e. when you see a tiger, you don't stop and think, you just run. But in other instances, taking mental shortcuts may not always be correct. You see a chic at the club with an e