Posts

The fallacies of heuristics and other mindsets

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I recently attended a lunchtime presentation on behavioral finance, and yes whilst the sashimi was deliciously fresh, the ideas were even more appetizing.  The session ran through a number of common investor mindsets, such as the recency effect, confirmation bias and disposition effect (I'll go through them briefly later), but the one that struck me the most was heuristics, or simply put "mental shortcuts". To illustrate, in the room below there are two red lines, which one is longer? If you answered the one on top, unfortunately you're wrong, they are actually both the same length! Congrats to the smart cookies out there who got it right. Heuristics are all about making quick assumptions or judgments, based on our historical experiences. In some instances they are essential, i.e. when you see a tiger, you don't stop and think, you just run.  But in other instances, taking mental shortcuts may not always be correct.  You see a chic at the club with an e

Active Management Styles

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In my last post  I talked about the two ways you can access a portfolio of stocks with minimal effort. Today we’re going to take a deep dive into active management – more specifically investment styles.  (Yes finance can be stylish!) So let's get straight into it.  Active fund managers have particular ways or styles of investing, which are broadly categorised into the following: 1)     Value 2)     Growth 3)     Core and; 4)     Low volatility or managed volatility. Value Value as the name suggests, is about picking stocks that are undervalued (i.e. cheap) that the market hasn't yet noticed, but have latent potential to rally. Often these are stocks that have suffered poor earnings, or have gone through cyclical issues. Here the skill lies in a fund manager’s ability to identify those companies that will eventually rebound, from those that will continue to underperform (i.e. avoid ‘value traps’). Benjamin Graham is often credited as the father of

Active vs Passive funds

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Slowing property prices, impending interest rate rises and threatened changes to negative gearing have some millennials wondering whether property is still a viable investment.  In fact, you might be wondering this regardless of which generation you are from. Property investment is a big decision and the debt you’ll be facing will lock away a sizeable portion of your funds in the foreseeable future. So, as a millennial, if we can’t have our smashed avo and a house to go with it, what are the alternative options available to us with long investment horizons and a bit of change in our pockets? One alternative is stock market investing. In contrast to property, stock investments can be a bit of a rollercoaster ride because of stock market volatility. Additionally for those who are new or inexperienced to the stock market, it can be difficult to pick stocks not to mention the time and dedication required for picking those stocks.  That said, there are two ways you can go about inv

the ABCs of choosing a Superfund (Part 2)

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In  Part 1 , I talked about the type of superfund,  the return target and the level of risk taken.  Part 2 is about performance and fees. 3. Performance -   The median MySuper Balanced Option returned over 10% last year, how did your superfund compare to this? Although "past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance", it still is AN indicator. The  chart below shows the median, top and bottom quartile performance for the defau lt MySuper Balanced Option of all superfunds over various periods to 30 June 2017. The yellow dots represent the median.                               Source: SuperRatings. Rolling returns to 30 June 2017.  Last financial year was a strong performing year, with global equities delivering circa 15% and Australian equities close to 14%.  With most Superfunds investing broadly between  55% - 70%  in Equities (in the Balanced Option), its no wonder that the median Balanced Option delivered over 10% for the year. The 10 yea

The ABCs of choosing a superfund (Part 1)

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It was over a delicious Melbournian brunch with a group of girlfriends one fine afternoon that I realised how many of us need help with choosing a superfund.  Whilst it seems like an excruciatingly boring topic, it can make a big difference to you later on in life.  With a plethora of products out there, ads constantly shoved in your face, how do you know which superfunds are just flashy advertising, and which ones will actually deliver on their promise? As someone working in this space, I thought I'd impart some of my thoughts.  I've started with two simple and quick things that you can check (more on performance and fees in Part 2 ) : 1. What kind of superfund is it? There are two broad camps of superfunds, 1) Industry superfunds, and 2) Retail superfunds (aka master trusts or corporate master trusts).  Broadly speaking, industry superfunds are set up for the benefit of their members (and in fact the establishment of the compulsory superannuation scheme was born from the i